Grapefruits and oranges are expected to lose market share to other citrus and non-citrus fruits.
According to a report by the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, U.S. citrus production is projected to continue its long-term decline before stabilizing until 2033.
This trend is attributed to the decrease in orange and grapefruit production, along with an increase in lemon and mandarin production.
The USDA’s «Agricultural Projections to 2033» report forecasts that total U.S. citrus production will drop from about 11.2 billion pounds (5.08 million tons) in 2022 to approximately 9.9 billion pounds (4.49 million tons) in 2024. Production is then expected to remain relatively stable for several years, reaching 11.1 billion pounds (5.03 million tons) in 2033.
By state, California is expected to remain the largest producer of fresh oranges, grapefruits, mandarins, and lemons, though it may see slight reductions in grapefruit and orange crop volumes. Grapefruits and oranges are projected to lose market share to other citrus and non-citrus fruits. However, California’s production of lemons and mandarins, including easy-peel varieties, is expected to increase over the projection period.
In Florida, orange, grapefruit, and mandarin production is expected to continue its decades-long decline as citrus groves are converted to other uses.
The total value of U.S. citrus production is projected to increase by 25 percent during the 2022/23 period due to higher prices. The agricultural value is projected to rise from $2.98 billion in 2022 to $3.7 billion in 2033.
The report also indicates that net farm income for all of agriculture is expected to decrease by $7.3 billion, or 4.8 percent, from $151.1 billion in 2023 to $143.8 billion in 2024. Net farm income is projected to reach $123.6 billion by 2033. Lower cash receipts, due to lower commodity prices, are the main contributors to the projected decline in net farm income for 2024 compared to 2023.